The new study published in 'Nature Energy'. The analysis reveals that a combination of electrification, better energy efficiency, and smarter use of energy can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in buildings and transport, two sectors that together account for 58% of energy consumption and 26% of global emissions."
A group of experts, including researchers from the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Cmcc), demonstrate that "these reductions are achievable with already existing technologies, offering a practical and clear roadmap for policy and industry decision-makers, in line with the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius."
Immediate action can be taken in the transport sector
Electrification (for example, switching to electric vehicles, heat pumps) alone – it is explained – "could reduce direct emissions by 45-77% in buildings and by 22-86% in transport by 2050." The combination of electrification, efficiency improvements, and behavioral changes "could further reduce emissions: 51-85% for buildings and 37-91% for transport by 2050." A multi-strategy approach would reduce "overall electricity demand by 8-33% per year, making the transition more cost-effective and reducing pressure on power grids." The results are "in line with global climate goals, showing that integrating these strategies can significantly help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees by 2050."
The energy transition is possible
"These results – explains Johannes Emmerling, senior scientist at Cmcc – show that the transition to clean energy in buildings and transport can be more manageable than previously thought. By combining electrification with greater efficiency and smarter use of energy, we can achieve drastic emission reductions while also reducing pressure on electrical systems, resulting in lower costs and fewer infrastructure challenges in addressing climate change."
"Our study highlights the importance of demand in the decarbonization process, an often overlooked aspect – says Alice Di Bella, PhD student and affiliated researcher at Cmcc – by comparing the results of multiple models, we provide solid evidence that electrification, efficiency, and behavioral changes are feasible and effective solutions for climate mitigation." "Our work highlights that the tools to reduce emissions are already in our hands – says Emmerling – the main difficulty is not technology, but policy and strategic implementation. By combining these strategies intelligently, we can achieve significant emission reductions, making the transition more accessible, reducing pressure on power grids, and ensuring a more sustainable future."
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-025-01703-1
CURRENT political scenario +30% 2015-2030 building and transport consumption +50% by 2050
In the default current policy scenario (REF), direct CO2 emissions from buildings increase by -1% to 36% in 2030 and by -8% to 31% in 2050 compared to 2015 levels, while direct emissions from transport increase by 5% to 2% in 2030 and by -10% to 49% in 2050 (Fig. 1). This increase is mainly caused by the rise in final energy demand after 2015. However, not all models also indicate a corresponding strong increase in emissions; in fact, some models even predict a decrease due to a more pronounced shift to less carbon-intensive fuels. The wide variation in model projections is closely related to how efficiency and changes in service demand (e.g., elasticity or relationships with economic activity) are modeled. In some models, increased activity leads to increased emissions, while in others, activity growth is partially offset by efficiency improvements. However, in both sectors, final energy demand continues its upward trend in most models.
The activity-focused strategy (ACT) involves redesigning service delivery systems to reduce or shift energy and transport service consumption. In buildings, this strategy includes reducing average dwelling sizes, working in shared buildings with flexible use, adjusting thermostat settings to lower set points (heating) or higher (cooling). In transport, it includes promoting active modes (walking, cycling), public and shared mobility options. Air travel is discouraged, while advances in freight logistics and speed limits in maritime transport allow for more efficient goods movement.
The technological optimization strategy (TEC) focuses on improvements in the efficiency of existing technologies. Higher levels of energy efficiency are achieved in both new and existing buildings through higher renovation rates, better thermal insulation, and more efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Efficiency standards are implemented for road vehicles, aircraft, and ships. Environmental certification of aircraft and ships is required for the use of airports and ports.
The electrification-focused strategy (ELE) focuses on switching to electricity and alternative fuels. Heat pumps and electricity-based heating systems are widely adopted in buildings. Fossil fuels are gradually phased out, and new natural gas connections are banned in the northern hemisphere. Passenger vehicles, light trucks, and ports switch to full electrification. Diesel engines are gradually phased out from heavy vehicles, and biofuels and electrofuels are increasingly used in aviation and shipping.
Finally, a combined approach, called "all interventions" (ALL), integrates all ACT, TEC, and ELE interventions.
Intervention strategies mitigate the increase in energy demand and reduce the growth of direct emissions in both buildings and transport, similarly across models. Emission reductions compared to current levels are robust in the models for both ELE and ALL, especially in buildings, but with greater inter-model variation for activity-focused and technology optimization strategies. The emission reduction potentials in 2030, compared to the reference scenario (REF), for direct building emissions
3-16% (ACT),
3-19% (TEC)
10-31% (ELE)
for direct transport emissions
4-15% (ACT),
2-10% (TEC)
3-17% (ELE) (Fig. 2).
The potentials become more substantial by 2050 and reach for buildings
6-23% (ACT),
11-33% (TEC)
45-77% (ELE)
for transport.
and 17-28% (ACT),
2-67% (TEC)
22-86% (ELE)
